In this Africa sub-region, the CFR ranges from 3 to 5% but can increase to about 30% during severe outbreaks. Sub-Saharan African countries have the highest morbidity and mortality associated with the disease. Only eleven of the African countries including Ethiopia, contributed 66% of this deaths. Īfrica and Southeast Asia contributed 70% of the 39.9 million global burdens of measles in year 2000 and also 84% of the global measles-related deaths. Despite intensive vaccination activities in the European region, cases were still reported. Children below the age of 15 had a national incidence of 738/100,000 in 2002 and 544/100,000 in 2003, estimated to more than 100,000 cases within the age group. On 16th September 2010, World Health Organization (WHO) countries in the European region came up with a resolution to renew their commitment to eliminate measles and rubella by the year 2015, coming up with several criteria to eliminate the disease in the region, including protection of Europeans against measles and rubella infection which had affected several European countries including Romania and Italy with the largest outbreak reported in southern Italy. It is a highly infectious disease that will infect about 90% of unvaccinated individuals exposed before the age of 10. Recent estimates of measles CFRs used by WHO in endemic countries range between 0.05–6%. Globally, an estimate of 254,928 measles cases and 89,780 deaths occur annually and the measles case fatality ratios (CFRs) was estimated to be 0.1% in the developed world. Measles disease is caused by a morbilli virus of the paramyxoviridae family and is a contagious respiratory infection. Government should strengthen the existing framework on measles reduction and more attention should be given to the second quarter of each year. Measles cases may increase in years ahead, but the second quarter of a year has the highest number. ConclusionsĮde south LGA has the highest proportion of reported measles cases in Osun State. A quarterly projection for 20 showed an increasing trend with the second quarter of each year likely to have the highest reported cases of measles. The computed quarterly variation for the studied years was 1.094 for the 1st quarter, 1.162 for the 2nd quarter, 0.861 for the 3rd quarter and 0.888 for the 4th quarter. The trend line for the 3-year period showed a positive correlation ( r = + 0.4979, p = 0.056). Out of the three studied years, year 2017, recorded the highest number of reported cases of measles in Osun State. The rate of reported cases of measles was 20.2, 34.4 and 28.8 per 100,000 populations in 2016, 20 respectively in Ede south LGA where the highest rates were reported in the 3-year period. ResultsĬases of measles were reported across the 30 LGAs of the state between January 2016 and December 2018. The MTSM was used to determine the trend, seasonality in the data and make projections for 20. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a multiplicative time series model (MTSM). The Osun State surveillance weekly reporting data on measles cases from all its 30 Local Government Area (LGA) were reviewed, from January 2016 to December 2018 ( n = 1205). We described the distribution, trend and make projection of measles cases in Osun State. In Nigeria, measles is the fifth leading causes of under-five child mortality with 342 confirmed cases found in the first 9 epidemic weeks in some states including Osun State. The terrain is very rocky, with a beautiful green ground cover and close stands of trees.Globally, an estimate of 254,928 measles cases in 2015 and 89,780 deaths in 2016 occur annually. Geologically, the hills are crystalline in nature, of the basement complex, the oldest exposed rocks in Nigeria. An attempt to locate this feature during the 1992 field season proved abortive. The town is situated in a hollow, surrounded by hills on almost all sides, the most prominent being Ora, reputed to house an important feature, Oko Noah (Noah’s ship). This is supplemented by subsistence farming of crops like yam, cassava and maize. If regulated, licensed mining operations had been established, Itagunmodi could have been the ‘Johannesburg’ of Nigeria.Ģ Itagunmodi falls directly within the rain forest belt of southwestern Nigeria, which is dominated by cocoa plantations, the cultivation of which forms the major occupation of the people. This area is yet to be exploited commercially – at present only illegal miners exploit the alluvial deposits. The town lies in the gold belt of Ijesaland. 1 Itagunmodi is an important rural town in Atakunmosa Local Government Area of Ijesaland, about seven kilometers south of the Ife-Ilesa-Akure road (figure 1).
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